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I don’t think that Russell Broadbent has confirmed whether he is running again or not, but he does seem to be maintaining an online media presence. Anyone with inside knowledge on this electorate? If he were to run again as an independent, would he have a reasonable chance of winning?
He is still the MP but he is 74 and there have been reports that he may not be in the best of health. He doesn’t get much reporting in the South Gippsland media. He ran a very low key campaign in 2022 and the result showed. He was pretty comprehensively dumped by the party. If he ran maybe 10%.
i doubt he could win the seat. he was comprehensively dumped by the memebership so i doubt he would pull any serious vote. time to retire gracefully and enjoy life i think for him
At present, it’s unconfirmed. He hasn’t announced running as an independent nor has he announced his retirement.
People under estimate.Mr Broadbent
His canditure would help Labor
If Labor was as popular as they were in 2022 they could potentially mount a credible campaign to win this seat on Broadbent’s preferences. Labor somehow retaining/notional gaining Bass suggests there’s at least something to work with.
On the other hand, Labor is pretty much dead in the Latrobe Valley for the foreseeable future. They don’t really have a solid base to win the seat. Plus I don’t see Monash being the exception to Labors apparent new woes in Victoria
@mick not really he was convincingly beaten in preselection so his own party members dont even want him. also the election is going to see a swing to liberal agaisnt labor especially in victoria given continous polling no way labor wins here. maybe they could get broadbent relected if he runs but thats about it.
@blue as in the 2022 federal election the 2022 vic election was a high watermark for labor that has since been hammered since those elections expected labor to lose Bass in 2026
This is very close to Melbourne for a regional seat. Being beaten in a part preselection only means some one was ambitious and there was no will to protect him.He is more than the classic liberal party Maddie. I have doubts the rainbow of votes in Vic will happen.
In Vic re the metro seats in play are Deakin Menzies and Aston all where the liberals are advantaged .Also Nicolls and Wannon are in danger to independents.
I agree that Mick that Russell’s candidacy would, along with Deb Leonard’s presence, split the Liberal vote, and advantage either Labor or Ms Leonard herself!
Mick. He was beaten because it was time for home to be replaced he served his constituents well but hes at that age where it was time to bring in the next generation and for the next few decades Broadbent is pushing 74 and wouldn’t have been around for much longer. All those seats you mention will be won by the coalition. These are outsiders like Sophie Mirabella and the Libs will recover from 2022.
Politic Labor won’t be getting any advantage in an election they are gonna go backwards Labor is playing a purely defensive game this election and are devoting all their resources to defend seats.
Think very small numbers of people voted in the liberal preselection. If all the seats I suggested were won by the liberals then this is effectively a status quo of 2022 result.
of 193 votes mary aldred received 161. the remaining 32 were split evenly at 16 each to Broadbent and Nathan Hersey. a comprehensive defeat if therer ever was one. Mary Aldred is not a lame duck candidate and should win the seat easily. the independent and labor wont be a hreat here. Broadbent should retire gracefully as he is 74 and its time for him t retire and enjoy his later years with his family so that a new generation of Liberals can continue to represent the people of monash for many years to come.
Less than 200 people out of in excess of 100 000 voters!
Mr Broadbent does have a personal vote here to what extent I don’t know but i would say that it prevented this seat being in play for multiple elections With Morwell hived off mainly into Gippsland this seat via demographics is shifting labors’ way.. Of course the liberals are most likely to win here but then again….?
35% non major party vote here and over 20% of that went to Labor via preferences
Unlikely those preference flows are repeated if PHON and their allies do well
he managed just over 8% of his own branch members. he wouldnt do much better then that on his primary vote as an independent.
Broadbent has hung on too long and the preselection proves it. Mary Aldred has been very active and very visible. Deb Leonard – the Teal – has come out if the fates early and actively. The state government seems to be on the nose here – roads are bad, Gippsland trains. Would not be surprised to see Labor come third.
The way I see it is:
If Broadbent.runs he has an outside chance of being re relected or helps labor.
If decides not to run..then his personal vote> 5% would be lost to the liberals as he won by 3% approx makes interesting times potentially.
NOW IF THE PROJECTED SILVER WAVE OF LIBERAL VOTES DOESN’T OCCUR…
Mick
I spend a lot of time in South Gippsland. Russell Broadbent has low visibility and in 2022 ran an invisible campaign. Seriously, I don’t think he has much of a personal vote. He rarely gets mentioned in the local paper because he doesn’t do anything. The local National and Labor state MPs do lots and get coverage. Mary Aldred is out and about to. If he ran – about 8%. As for Labor, they don’t even have a candidate yet. As above – would not be surprised if they come third. You do seem to love flogging the dead horse of Russell Broadbent.
The payouts for being defeated seem to motivate deselected MPs to run and lose rather than disapoearing gracefully.
@ redistributed
Yes Big.George did that. But he did not run in Dawson which he could possibly have won.
I think Labor, due to a statewide anti-incumbency swing and choosing to run dead to sandbag their own seats, will see a drop in the primary vote. I am not sure what sort of traction Deb Leonard is getting but it’s possible she’ll overtake Labor.
@Mick, I doubt George Christensen would’ve won Dawson as a One Nation candidate. He quit the LNP sometime last term and joined One Nation. One Nation usually don’t make the 2PP at federal elections.
Deb Leonard seemed to be running an active campaign when I was visiting the area before Christmas.
I’d agree that Russell Broadbent would probably struggle to crack 10% running as an independent, in which case it will be important where his preferences go. I can see a plausible scenario where at the 4CP stage it’s Broadbent 4th, Leonard 3rd, Labor 2nd, Liberal 1st, in which case the proportion of Broadbent voters who preference Leonard above the Liberals would be crucial in determining whether she gets above Labor into the 2CP (at which point she would presumably pick up the vast majority of Labor preferences).
Incidentally, this seat (in its previous incarnation as McMillan) was won in 1972 by the Country Party from 3rd and a 16.6% primary, in a pretty similar scenario to 2025 (sitting Liberal member disendorsed and contested as an independent, only getting 6% himself but helping to get the Country Party over the Liberals into the 2CP with his preferences).
The Nationals could run here. They hold Morwell and South Gippsland at the state level. They ran in the state seat of Bass in 2022 – they might have delivered it to Labor who only won by 200 or so votes. Hard to see Broadbent preferencing Deb Leonard but the leakage could be key. Deb Leonard’s problem will be trying to make cut through in Warrigul and the Valley – a long way and very different from her Phillip Island home base. It is also worth remembering that One Nation do quite well here particularly in the Valley.
That’s a valid point about One Nation (and they’ll presumably absorb much of the UAP vote from last time too). In 2022 Leonard got about 50% of One Nation/UAP preferences at the 3CP stage. Given likely preference flows, I think she has a realistic chance if she gets above 15% (from 10% in 2022) and the Liberal (or Liberal + National if the Nationals run) and Labor primaries are below 40 and 30 respectively.
Russell Broadbent has officially announced that he is running again. He is supporting oil and gas so presumably won’t be swapping preferences with Deb Leonard.
Redistributed I’d say has looking for a severance check by being defeated